A new tropical disturbance is being tracked in the Atlantic
A new tropical disturbance is now being tracked in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in the wake of Invest 95L, which is becoming Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Beryl.
A new tropical disturbance is now being monitored in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in the wake of Invest 95L, which is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Peril.
The new disturbance is a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), some slow development of the system is possible early next week as it generally moves westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Currently there is a 20% chance of growth in the next week.
But it’s its sister storm to the west that’s currently garnering much attention in the tropics.
Computer forecast models show that the disturbance, dubbed Invest 95L by the NHC, is likely to develop as it approaches the Caribbean late Sunday or Monday. Investigate is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas to examine for possible tropical development within the next week.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said there is considerable uncertainty about where the system will go after that time and how strong it will become.
NHC now has growth opportunities to invest 95L in the upper range. Those odds are for at least one tropical depression developing.
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“(Wednesday), several computer simulations showed the system developing into a hurricane next week,” FOX Meteorologist Brian Norcross said. “(Thursday), various computer models show a weak system moving mostly westward. If the storm ends up in the Caribbean, this is the consensus, and even if that happened, it would be very unusual for the system to strengthen.”
For now, especially in the Caribbean, there’s not much to do but stay informed, Norcross added.
Brian Norcross: Anomalous June growth in the tropical Atlantic appears high
Before 2021, a June tropical storm in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean is rare. However, in the last three years, it has happened three times, and Bonnie tried hard in 2022, but it did not go until it reached the Western Caribbean.
Invest 94l
Another disturbance known as Invest 94L is moving through the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing the possibility of heavy and dangerous rain.
How do hurricanes form?
The NHC gives a low chance of this system forming. If it does, it could be in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, if the system maintains its trek across land, Norcross said.
“On the current schedule, the disturbance will affect Central America and move into the southern Gulf by the end of the week,” he explained. “A high pressure system across the southern U.S. should be well south.”
