Bad expectations weigh against the positive view of the current situation
New York, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell for the second month in a row in February. The index now stands at 102.9 (1985=100), up from 106.0 in January (downward revision). The Current status code—based on consumer assessments of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 152.8 (1985=100) from 151.1 last month. The Anticipation codeIncome, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for business and labor market conditions – fell further to 69.7 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January. Notably, the index of expectations has now fallen below 80—a level that points to a recession within the next year. It has remained below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.
“Consumer confidence fell again in February. The decline reflected a larger drop in confidence among households aged 35 to 54 and among income households. $35,000 or more,” said Ataman Ozildrim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board.
“Although consumers’ view of current business conditions worsened in February, the Current Situation Index, based on a favorable view of job availability, rose slightly. In fact, the proportion of consumers who say jobs are ‘plenty’ rose to 52.0 percent – back to levels seen in the spring of last year. However, going forward “The outlook looks significantly more pessimistic. Expectations of where jobs, incomes and business conditions will go over the next six months all fell sharply in February.”
“Also, while 12-month inflation expectations have improved—falling to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent last month—consumers may be showing early signs of pulling back on spending due to higher prices and rising interest rates. Fewer consumers plan to buy homes or scale back plans to buy autos and major appliances. It seems. Holiday intentions also decreased in February.”
Current situation
Consumer rating of electricity Business conditions It got worse in February.
- 17.8% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 19.9%.
- 17.7% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 19.0%.
Consumer rating Laboratory market It was very positive.
- 52.0% of consumers said jobs are “plenty,” up from 48.1%.
- 10.5% of consumers say jobs are “hard to get,” down from 11.1%.
Expectations for six months
Consumers have become very pessimistic about this Short-term business conditions overview In February.
- 14.2% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 18.4%.
- Meanwhile, 21.9% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 22.6%.
Consumers were less enthusiastic about it Short-term labor market outlook.
- 14.5% of consumers expect more jobs, up from 17.7%.
- However, 20.3% expect fewer jobs, down from 21.4%.
consumer’ Short term Income opportunities became considerably less enthusiastic.
- 13.4% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 17.4% last month.
- 11.6% expect their income to decrease, up from 13.4% last month.
A monthly consumer confidence survey based on online sampling, Toluna is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise and a global consumer base of over 36 million. Cutoff Date for Preliminary Results February 22.
Source: February 2023 Consumer confidence survey®
Conference Board
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET On the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and technical notes for this series are available on the Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
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